Alright, I made a post on December 20th urging people to start staying in because I saw the uptick and knew what was about to happen… I also went through my entire friend list, and individually messaged people who I thought might be exposed to lots of random Windsor people on the daily and tried to get them to be a little more cautious in the upcoming month, and well… I was right. So, second wave is starting to rear it’s ugly head in Windsor, don’t freak out… but start taking this shit seriously since we’re staring down a barrel of a fucking loaded gun right now and it’s up to us, literally every single individual out there, to make sure that we don’t blow our collective fucking heads off. As usual, WHCU public outreach has been abysmall. (ps ya’ll should hire me as a public relations officer, best idea 10/10, will leave good yelp review.) Ahmed has at least tried to step it up a little but that dude is just worn out from all this idiocy, you can see it on his face and it’s super sad. Anyway, I just want to take a moment to make you folks realize how serious our situation currently is, and what the actual infection numbers probably are so that maybe… just maybe… you’ll pass the next time your buddies want to hang out somewhere, you’ll limit your excursions as much as possible, and y’know… help Windsor nip this thing in the bud. Realtalk, just stay home, chill and watch Netflix or something, you’re not being asked to storm the beaches of god damn Normandy. So, now that we got all the godawful preamble out of the way, time for the fun stuff.
This chart right here, this will be the most important chart you will lay your eyes on. It is literal gold by which you should base your actions off in the upcoming weeks. This is Tomas Pueyo’s analysis from the Journal of the American Medical Association, based on raw case data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
The orange bars? Those are the daily official numbers of cases in the Hubei province… how many people were diagnosed that day.
The gray bars? Those are the TRUE daily coronaviruses cases. The Chinese CDC found these by asking patients during the diagnostic when their symptoms started.
Crucially, these true cases weren’t known at the time. We can only figure them out looking backwards: The authorities don’t know that somebody just started having symptoms. They know when somebody goes to the doctor and gets diagnosed.
What this means is that the orange bars show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.
On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed cases (orange) is exploding: there are around 100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new cases that day, growing exponentially. But the authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this new illness.
Two days later, authorities shut down Wuhan. At that point, the number of diagnosed daily new cases was ~400. Note that number: they made a decision to close the city with just 400 new cases in a day. In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that.
The day after, another 15 cities in Hubei shut down.
Up until Jan 23rd, when Wuhan closes, you can look at the grey graph: it’s growing exponentially. True cases were exploding. As soon as Wuhan shuts down, cases slow down. On Jan 24th, when another 15 cities shut down, the number of true cases (again, grey) grinds to a halt. Two days later, the maximum number of true cases was reached, and it has gone down ever since.
Windsor currently has 2,526, taking into account when we shut down and given the case trend over the past few days, I can extrapolate that in reality we have around 14,000 active community cases. This is when you take what the health unit is telling you seriously. Stay inside, don’t go out unless it’s essential. Seriously. Also, the 14000 estimate is not even taking into account the delta on the new strain, there’s not enough data to make any concreete predictions as of yet however you can be sure it will skew the numbers in the wrong direction. I’m just hoping to fuck it’s not an order of magnitude-level-of-skewyness. [one final thing, when china shut the city down… they shut the city down. none of this halfass shit the rest of the world is trying to pull off. they LITERALLY welded people inside of their houses who refused to stay put. so that also skews the numberes more terrible-ey for us but for the sake of sanity, not getting into the nitty gritty of it]
That’s the terror that we’re facing, a foe that multiplies exponentially if left to its own devices unchecked. Check. It. Immediately. Otherwise you will be throwing our insane levels of luck and foreshadowing right in the garbage and I don’t even want to think what would happen if we let what happened in the states play out here with our healthcare infrastructure.
Now, I need to appologize for the idiocy that WCS decided to pull off with CovidCurry&DomesticDerryl the other day, giving those fucking writeoffs any kind of platform is basically the stupidest thing anyone could have done. I had nothing to do with it, and once I found out what was going on, I stormed over there to get them to stop but failed. Again, I do not run WCS. I do not plan this shit. WCS is owned by Kyle and Rob, I’m just a mod. Quit blaming me for everything involving wcs pls, thx. Anyway, now to adress the fuckheads not taking this seriously.
I need to point out that COVID-19 alone isn’t the only risk as hospitals fill up. Consider how much more risky common daily actions are if you don’t have access to adequate healthcare should you need it. Driving, climbing a ladder, using sharp knives in the kitchen, walking in treacherous conditions, pre-existing conditions that could deteriorate into a hospital visit. Virtually every aspect of daily life becomes riskier as you lose reliable access to modern healthcare.
I can mention increased risks, or statistical reasons, but without the context of what that really looks like, many people will simply ignore it. These anecdotes just further humanize how tragic this all is. So let’s try to make this more personal, I’m going to drop some stories here from a doc that will not be named, but take a step back and try to put yourself in these peoples shoes… and think about the consequences of your actions. First, I need to address the morons still blowing this shit off and to THIS DAY piping up about this being “no worse than the common cold”. Covid19 is not the “common cold”. Far from it. Its communicability, morbidity, and mortality are far greater, and we are only just beginning to understand the potential lasting health consequences of this disease. The spread of this kind of misinformation is disheartening and frustrating, especially when juxtaposed with the public health catastrophe that might shortly be crushing us. I’ve feelt like a god damn deer in headlights for the past year and just about everything I figured would happen… ended up happening. Shit gets old real quick. Patients with acute respiratory failure from COVID-19 now account for greater than 80% of the total census in many hospitals, with floor after floor being converted into COVID units. I have never seen one singular pathology consume entire hospitals in such a sweeping fashion. It is akin to a wildfire. The typical flu season pales in comparison. Hospitals are going to get filled beyond capacity, with patients waiting whole days in the emergency rooms for beds. The capacity of intensive care units and step-down units will have been exhausted, and thus, staff must instead care for these critically ill patients in regular units that are understaffed and underequipped. Ventilators, specialized nasal cannulas, and home oxygen tanks might start getting rationed. The stress, fatigue, and tension are palpable as staff work themselves to the bone under our CURRENT conditions, I can’t even begin to imagine the type of hereoism that’ll be on display if this pans out the way I imagine it might under the worst case scenario. [@healthcare bros, love you, ya’ll the best, some of us won’t ever forget the debt we owe all of you alsopsifanyofoyouneedliterallyanythingjustask, i smuggled entire crates of n95’s during the first shitshow, I’ll do it again… except I’m a little more prepped this time since I’ve had a year to stockpile ppe and shit.. ANYWAY.] The importance of these logistical issues notwithstanding, they are not nearly as poignant as the suffering of individual patients. For many, this virus seems trivial and completely overblown. However, it is difficult to grasp the magnitude of this disaster in a tangible way until you are peering into the abyss yourself. So, without further ado, tales from a physician caring for patients hospitalized for COVID-19.
On arrival, a middle-aged man with COVID-19 pneumonia required machine assistance to help him breathe. His wife had brought home the virus after gathering with friends, and also gave it to his father and mother who lived with them. A few days before this man was admitted, his father died from COVID-19. His mother had also been hospitalized. The patient’s wife was later hospitalized that same day as well.
A middle-aged man was admitted for COVID-19 pneumonia, also requiring machine assistance to maintain his oxygen levels. He and his family had attended a large Thanksgiving gathering the week prior with 15 people. One participant tested positive for COVID-19, and now all 15 attendees have contracted the disease with multiple hospitalizations.
An elderly man was admitted for COVID-19 pneumonia and was ultimately transitioned to comfort care. However, his only son could not visit him to say goodbye, even during his last days, because his son had recently received an organ transplant.
An elderly man was intubated for COVID-19 pneumonia on arrival. One of his daughters had visited her boyfriend, who was found to have tested positive. She brought the virus home. Her sister contracted COVID-19 pneumonia as well and was suddenly found dead in her room one morning. My patient unfortunately also passed away.
A young man admitted for COVID-19 pneumonia suffered a cardiac arrest in the emergency department. He had contracted the virus from his workplace.
While heartbreaking, these tales of suffering are not unique, unfortunately. Our frontliners hear echoes of them in every single patient they see, tales of disbelief, regret, desperation, and finally, sorrow. This is not a political post. It is also not an attempt to minimize all the other types of ongoing societal suffering related to the pandemic, including financial adversity and mental stress from isolation. This is an attempt to make concrete the unforgiving and overwhelming reality of this disease, to shed light on the collapse of the hospital system and the rampant death and suffering being dismissed and downplayed by so many. One point is clear: COVID-19 is not the “common cold”. Let these patients and their stories be a cautionary tale. Please wear a mask and socially distance, if not for yourself, then for the safety of your own loved ones. Windsor’s future is quite literally in your hands. For the love of fuck, don’t piss it all away. Be safe, love you, and best wishes.
@whcu I’m still beyond pissed at the way you dudes are handling small business things etc, but I just haven’t had time to scream about it yet. Will do so at the earliest possible opportunity with constructive criticism, since ya’ll are apparently just ignoring all of my dialogue attempts. But I guess I can’t blame you, ya’ll are getting hammered right now.
@everyone else, just to further drive this home, I’ll go over Ontarios covid 19 triage protocols just to furthere hammer home how important it is for you to stay put, and take this seriously for the next little bit. Not enough time today though, so that’s a future endevour.
Please, take care of yourselves and stay safe.
@multiple places of employement that I know currently have a “quit getting tested so the whcu doesn’t decleare an outbreak here, which is more work for us” type of unwritten policy, fuck you. You have two weeks to CHANGE that fucking policy otherwise you’re getting a) blasted on here b) all the shit that was sent to me gets forwarded to whcu c) this involves you directly communicating this change to each of your employees. If they tell me you’ve ammended your shit, this all goes away. Sorry, I love all ya’ll, but this isn’t how this gets solved.