Where the hell do we stand in regards to non-pharmaceutical interventions in regards to Covid19?
- This is primarily for my healthcare bros in Canada who are scratching their heads wondering when it’s gonna hit. I can’t answer that, but I might be able to help you wrap your mind around where we stand.
- The data used in this shit is based on the global infection statistics from March 27 to April 17th.
- You will find that many points are very obvious facts. If you find that some opinions have become a reality, it means that my prediction is correct; if you find that some ideas are nonsense, it means that my prediction is wrong. I give not one fuck whether I am right or wrong, I’m just putting this in words now so that I can forever come back to it and be like “welp, you’re an idiot” and carry on with my life afterwards.
- If this ends up influencing government policies, all the better.
“There are two circumstances that lead to arrogance: one is when you’re wrong and you can’t face it; the other is when you’re right and nobody else can face it.”― Criss Jami, Diotima, Battery, Electric Personality
- Precise predictions of the number of people who may be infected are ineffective. With the deepening of the understanding of COVID-19 by governments and scientific research institutions in various countries, improving medical methods or implementing stricter control policies will greatly affect the changes in the number of infected people. It is a more sensible study to classify the trend of the number of infected people under the influence of different factors, and then modify the policy according to the trend of the expected number of infected people.
The four potential responses to Covid19
- If you don’t have the time to read this shit, here’s the general conclusions.
- Everyone needs to wear masks.
- The most dangerous country right now is Spain (as of March 27) rather than Italy.
- U.S. situation is troubling, bad times ahead
- It is difficult for most European countries to avoid the situation like Italy. Although it is difficult for us to fight against COVID-19 as effectively as Germany and Switzerland, we can simply avoid Spain by several means.
- There are too few nucleic acid tests in Japan and the United Kingdom. Failure to treat patients in time may lead to outbreaks in these two countries as severe as in the early days of Wuhan.
So, where to begin.
- As of March 26, the cumulative number of people infected with COVID-19 has been no less than 451,457, and the number of deaths has exceeded 20,000.
- At the same time, COVID-19 has spread in more than 179 countries and regions. This might turn out to be this generations mini-fermi-paradox.
- There’s more than a couple of recurring themes that are more worrying than the numbers themselves:
According to the current data, in the traditional sense, developed countries and countries with strong medical capabilities did not show strong response capabilities when responding to COVID-19. The two factors and the response to economic development and public health capabilities, the capacity of a large-scale outbreak is not directly proportional. Then there is a question worth exploring: What factors determine a country’s ability to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak?
Particularly noteworthy in this issue are:
- What factors can quickly improve a country’s ability to respond to a COVID-19 outbreak through policy changes
- What factors are enabling developing countries to rapidly change a country’s ability to respond to a COVID-19 outbreak with limited political and economic capabilities?
- I hope that research on this issue can also help us predict the epidemic situation in countries with insufficient nucleic acid detection capabilities.
- I hope that by studying the infection curve of the disease and the country’s quantifiable treatment capacity, the development of the epidemic will be divided into several categories, and according to the specific conditions of each category, relevant suggestions based on data analysis will be proposed to find feasible countermeasures to the whole COVID-19 transmission shebang.
I classify a country’s ability to handle COVID-19 into four categories based on subjective and objective, direct and indirect classification criteria. Ibelieve that these four categories of data can reflect a country’s ability to handle COVID-19. In addition to the subjective direct factor of government policy, the other three can be digitized. If these three data thingers are excellent in a country, but the number of confirmed cases in this country is still increasing exponentially, then we can think that the policy of this country needs to be improved.
I have selected three representative data thingers from each of the three data sources. The data sources are the World Bank and COVID-19 Open Research Dataset. I’ve selected 20 countries with obvious outbreaks for analysis. Hopefully to find out the relationship between the number of people infected with the outbreak and these three data thingers and classify them. In some countries, the number of people infected with the epidemic is obviously inconsistent with the data. I believe that these countries have problems with COVID-19’s policies.
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Basic Situation
Data comes from JHU CSSE March 27 to March 30.
- Screening the 30 countries that currently infect most people.
- Data visualization using BDP.
Analysis of the number of infections in each country.
Proportion of infections in total infections by country in the last 65 days.
- In the past month,COVID-19 worldwide outbreak.
- According to the current development of the epidemic, the cumulative number of people infected in China in the next month is after TOP10.
Proportion of infections in total infections by country in the last 20 days.
- In the past 20 days, the three most exponential growth regions to watch are Italy, the United States, and Spain.
Proportion of infections in total infections by country in the last 65 days (except China Mainland).
- Originally Japan and South Korea were the epicenter of outbreaks outside mainland China.
- Then, Iran and Italy then became new epidemic centers.
- Continental Europe and the United States are now at the center of the outbreak.
National infection rate
I focus the data analysis on two situations.
- The first is to analyze the changes in the number of outbreaks of infection at the beginning of the epidemic based on data on the number of people infected in each country. Ibelieve that the number zero patient in all countries except China are imported cases overseas. At the beginning of the epidemic, the relationship between the number of infected people and the total population of the country was weak. So when we have less than 5,000 people infected in a country, we use the “infected people” data for analysis.
- The other is based on the National infection rate and Mortality & cure rate. I believe that after the outbreak of COVID-19 in a large country, because the population of each country is very different, the indicator of “infected people” does not have the objective parameter of “infection ratio”.
Compare infections in these countries with more than 500 infections.
For the purposes of this shebang, I assume that once more than 500 people are diagnosed in a country, COVID-19 is an outbreak in this country.
- China, the United States, Italy, France, Germany and other major countries could not prevent the number of infections from increasing exponentially within 14 days after the 500th case in their respective countries
- South Korea and Japan brought the disease into the platform within 14 days of the outbreak (Japanese data may be underreported)
- Iran’s outbreak continued to increase linearly for three weeks after the 500th case in the country, which seems to indicate that Iran’s detection capacity has reached a bottleneck
- The number of infected people worldwide has grown significantly faster than China, with dozens of “Wuhan” appearing worldwide.
- Cumulative number of infections, the horizontal axis is the number of days from the date of the 500th infection.
- Let’s divide the situation into four different categories，according to the form of growth.
Analysis of percentage data
It is very unfair to rank only numbers. Countries like Singapore have only about 5,640,000 people, while countries like India have 1.3 billion people, although the number of them infected is almost the same.In this section, I will analyze the percentage-related data of various countries. These include:
- National infection rate
- Mortality&cure rate
- How many times the data on March 27 is the data on March 20?
Comparison of the proportion of infected people in the total number of people in each country within five days after the outbreak.
- The results of the different policies of various governments have not shown a large gap in handling the initial COVID-19 outbreak.
Comparison of the proportion of infected people in the total number of people in each country within two weeks after the outbreak.
- In contrast, the results of different government policies have shown a large gap in the longer-term COVID-19 outbreak.
- At the beginning of the outbreak, due to the lag of government policies in the number of confirmed patients, the increase in the number of confirmed patients per 10,000 countries did not vary greatly, and some of the differences were caused by population density, economic development level, and special events.
- But at two-week intervals, there will be very large differences in the proportion of confirmed diagnoses per 10,000 people in different countries. Effective prevention and control policies will be the only reason that can affect the growth rate of infected people.
Analysis of the infection rate per 10,000 people in the five countries with the highest number of infections in continental Europe (Italy, Spain, France, Germany, UK):
- Compared with the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, Italy outbreaks occurred a week earlier, but the increase in the infection rate per 10,000 people in these four countries is very similar.
- Compared with Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain infection rate per 10,000 people has increased very rapidly. Considering the current severe situation in Italy, Spain may become the first country in the world to suffer a medical system collapse due to COVID-19.
Compare the increase in infection rates per 10,000 people in Western countries in G7 and Spain：
- The change in infection rates per 10,000 people in Western countries in G7 is similar, and it may be difficult for Canada and the United States to avoid the situation in Italy.
- Perhaps because of the size of the country or because of the government’s concealment, the infection rate per 10,000 people in the United States started to increase exponentially later, but it has grown very rapidly several times. Very strict quarantine measures should be taken now to prevent the U.S. infection rate from growing at the same rate as Spain.
Medical and health service capacity and The level of economic development
- Above I have fully discussed the various types of changes in the number of countries infected with the virus, but it is clear that the type of epidemic development in this country is very inaccurate based on the number of people infected or the proportion of infection.
- In this content, let’s discuss the level of a country’s response to the next epidemic development from the two aspects of medical strength and social strength, and infer the development of the epidemic situation in these countries.
This chart depicts the trend in mortality for each country after the tenth death of the virus. After plotting the trend of mortality change in each country for one and a half months, we can find:
- The death tolls in Spain, the United Kingdom, Italy, France, and the United States have all increased exponentially in the same trend, and the growth rate is almost the same after two weeks.
- The number of deaths in the UK is rising very fast, second only to Spain, and the number of cures is currently much lower than the number of deaths. According to the above two data, there may be a large number of undiagnosed mild cases in the UK, and many cases have turned into critical illness before being diagnosed.
Sort the number of deaths from high to low, and draw a line chart corresponding to the low mortality (data as of March 30), from which you can see:
- In general, the current mortality rate is related to the number of deaths, but China, the United States, and Germany have abnormally low mortality rates. We can consider that the medical capabilities of these three countries have not yet collapsed.
After performing cluster analysis two-dimensionally on the mortality and deaths in these countries, we can find the same conclusions as the previous picture, and at the same time, the eleven countries with the highest death tolls can be divided into five categories:
- Germany and Switzerland, which rely on strong medical capabilities to keep mortality and deaths low.
- China and the United States, which have large populations and mobilize medical resources nationwide to rescue the hardest hit areas, have lower mortality and death tolls.
- Large countries with good medical resources, but the number of people infected with the epidemic has exceeded the capacity of medical resources. (Basically, I gotta warn that almost all countries face such risks)
- Although it has good medical resources, the number of people infected and severely infected by the epidemic has seriously exceeded the capacity of medical resources in Spain and Italy. (also must warn that many countries face such risks)
- Although in this picture I believe that according to the current testing data of Spain and Italy, the situation in Spain and Italy is the most critical in the world. But let’s assume that there are one type of countries outside the four types of countries. These countries do not have much nucleic acid detection capability, do not have the ability to control the bottom of the country, are unwilling or unable to detect and treat patients (in fact, you can think of all Most third world countries in the world are in this category, and there are more than 3 billion people living in such countries. Humanitarian disasters may have occurred in such countries, and the mortality rate may reach
Number of ICU beds
When medical resources are sufficient, developed countries can basically control the mortality rate below 1%; but once resources are scarce (inadequate ICU / ventilator / medical staff), the mortality rate will exceed 3-5% or even up to 10%, and the medical system will eventually collapse .
- So, how many new crown diagnoses can cause a country’s medical system to collapse? Here I only analyze from the number of ICUs. Known conditions: About 5% of the confirmed patients require ICUs (data from NEJM), and the ICU resources of each country / region are listed in the table below (from Wikipedia)
- Taking Italy as an example, the total population is 60.5 million, and the number of ICUs per 100,000 people is 12.5. Therefore, the total number of ICU beds in the country is about 605 12.5 = 7562. Before the outbreak, the bed occupancy rate had reached 78.9%, and there were only 7,562 (1-78.9%) = 1596 idle ICU beds, and the largest number of confirmed diagnoses was 1596/5% = 31,911 people. In fact, Italian medical care collapsed when more than 20,000 people were diagnosed. The reasons include high aging, scarce medical staff, and untimely transfer of medical resources. In the same way, the critical figures of the collapse of the medical system in various countries can be obtained. I have listed a few hot countries with a large number of confirmed diagnoses. (As of March 28)
- Spain, with a cut-off value of 22378 and a cumulative diagnosis of 64059 with a mortality rate of 7.70%, has collapsed.
- France, with a cut-off value of 37927 and a cumulative diagnosis of 32964 with a mortality rate of 6.05%, has collapsed.
- The Netherlands, with a cut-off value of 7618, a cumulative diagnosis of 8641, a mortality rate of 6.33%, has collapsed. 4. In the United Kingdom, the critical value is 13,761, the cumulative diagnosis is 11,660, and the mortality rate is 4.96%, which is close to collapse. The Prime Minister and the Crown Prince practiced herd immunity in person and saw initial success.
- Belgium, with a cut-off value of 6706, a cumulative diagnosis of 7284, a mortality rate of 3.97%, and a near collapse
- Switzerland, the threshold is 3394, the cumulative diagnosis is 12,351, the mortality rate is 1.66%, and there is no collapse? I have n’t been able to explain the Swiss data. Good is very abnormal.
- Canada, the cut-off value was 8528, the cumulative diagnosis was 4,622, the mortality rate was 1.15%, and it did not collapse. The situation is not good. It is too close to the hardest hit area in the United States and is at stake.
- In Austria, the cut-off value was 10075, the cumulative diagnosis was 7,557, the mortality rate was 0.77%, and it did not collapse. But soon.
- Germany, cut-off value of 97678! Cumulative diagnosis was 49436, with a mortality rate of 0.62% and no collapse. The German medical system has the highest ranking in Europe, and eventually the mortality rate will be fixed in the range of 1-2%.
- United States, threshold 817476 ! Cumulative value 100784, mortality rate 1.54%, not collapse. I have to admit that the United States has sufficient strategic reserves. Even if it fumbled in the early stage, it still has sufficient strategic resources and depth. I think the United States is unlikely to experience a COMPLETE medical collapse. The biggest problem is that the federal mobilization capacity is not strong enough, and the eastern region may soon fall. However, this is only discussed from the perspective of ICU beds. If we consider that there are more FUCKSHITdamn *CHANGE THIS LATER FFS* in the United States, the shortage of medical staff and senior management have not yet made up their minds to comprehensively prevent and control, I think that when the cumulative breakthrough exceeds 300,000 (expected in mid-April) It will be very dangerous elsewhere.
World Bank Indicator Analysis
So, let’s look at case fatality rate and ICU beds to analyze the ability of each country to directly combat COVID-19.
- We can only analyze a country’s ability to combat COVID-19 medical treatment based on its existing strength. It cannot show a country’s mobilization ability and national physical fitness.
- The ability to mobilize demonstrates a country’s ability to rapidly expand its medical capabilities. The stronger the ability to mobilize, the stronger the expected medical level of a country. National physical fitness shows the average physical fitness of a country’s nationals. The better the national physical fitness, the higher the possibility of healing.
- At the same time, a study published by NEJM shows that the mortality of elderly COVID-19 patients is significantly higher than that of young people. Therefore, we also use the data of the proportion of elderly people over 65 in the total population of a country to illustrate the vulnerability of a country’s population when facing COVID-19.
- In this figure, the horizontal axis X=GDP per capita × average life length × Number of hospital beds per capita
- In this figure, the horizontal axis Y=Proportion of elderly people over 65 years of the country’s population
- Two dashed lines represent the average of national data for each country.
- Type A: The proportion of the elderly population in the total population is low, and medical resources are poor.
- Type B: The proportion of the elderly population in the total population is high, and medical resources are average.
- Type C: The proportion of the elderly population in the total population is average, and medical resources are better.
- Type D: The proportion of the elderly population in the total population is high, and the medical resources are very good.
- Type F: The proportion of the elderly population in the total population is extremely high, and the medical resources are very good.
Among them, countries in Type B, including Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, Denmark, Sweden, Brazil, the Czech Republic, Poland, Portugal and other countries are facing more dangerous situations. On the one hand, the population is seriously aging, and the rate of severe illness and mortality of infected people will remain high. On the other hand, medical conditions and social mobilization capacity are insufficient to provide sufficient resources for the care of severe cases.
The Only Possible Responses
- The following four methods are currently adopted by countries that respond effectively to COVID-19, and are different from other countries that respond to COVID-19 ineffectively. For some countries, the first and second methods may be implemented without conditions. The third method has certain operational difficulties in implementation, but the fourth method can be used by any country.
- At the same time, I suggest that any government should review the available methods from the first to the fourth method. If the first and second methods can be implemented, then the third and fourth methods are unnecessary.
1. Strong medical response.
- As we have seen in the battle between Germany and Switzerland against COVID-19, it seems that with adequate medical resources, the mortality rate will remain around one percent. If sufficient ventilator supply is maintained, the lethality of COVID-19 to infected persons will remain at a level similar to that of influenza. It is not necessary to isolate the people and to suspend the economy. Mortality due to many factors including isolation and social order changes, including unemployment, will even be higher than the COVID-19 mortality rate.
2. Excellent national health awareness and take a large number of nucleic acid testing.
- Excellent national health habits can delay the arrival of the peak number of people diagnosed with the epidemic, and flatten the curve of the number of infections, reducing the impact of a large number of short-term new cases on the medical system. The “herd immunity” strategy proposed earlier in the UK may be credible, but the UK is not Japan. Although we cannot think that this method can prevent the outbreak of the epidemic, Japanese experience tells us that we can still effectively reduce the impact of COVID-19 on the national health without stopping society and the economy. The government uses the delayed time to prepare for COVID-19, while medical institutions only need to deal with the lower peak of confirmed patients after the flattening, so as not to collapse.
3. Using time differences to effective use of medical resources.
- The experience of epidemic response in Wuhan, China and Daegu in South Korea tells us that when the country is facing a single outbreak in a city, we should gather the power of the entire country to prevent the further development of the epidemic in this city, instead of letting each medical institution respond to it Preparedness for impact in their city.
- Since this is an aerosol-borne virus [and it fucking is, nothing anyone at this point says will sway my opinion. okay, well, maybe a buncha peer-reviewed journals but… in the meantime, it’s fucking aerosolized.], as long as a city does not control the disease, everyone in the country will face great risks. The demand for PPE across the country will increase dramatically, and medical institutions across the country must use high-level PPE to avoid potential nosocomial infections. If cities in different regions take care of themselves without focusing on rescue of many cases of infection, medical supplies will quickly dry up.
4. Mandatory isolation of everyone.
- Closing the city and forcing everyone apart is the last resort. It is primitive and violates human rights, but it works. The right to life is always the most important human right. If it is difficult for a country to use all three of these practices, then requiring all non-socially necessary citizens to stop work and be isolated at home is the last resort. For China, they did not have sufficient per capita medical resources and their personal hygiene habits were not excellent. However, the combination of 3 and 4 was used to basically control the epidemic in Hubei within one month and die simultaneously. The rate is about 4 percent.
The Grand Finale
1. Wear a god damn mask mask!
- According to current statistical data, countries that promote the wearing of national masks, including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and China (including Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau), have effectively controlled the exponential increase in the number of people infected within 14 days of the outbreak. And major countries that have not recommended nationals to wear masks, including Britain, France, Germany, the United States, Spain, Italy and other major Western countries have failed to control the exponential increase in the number of people infected within 14 days of the outbreak. Although this data is more directly related to different policies in various countries, what you can do as an individual is to wear a mask to protect yourself and protect others.
- Save N95 masks for frontline personnel.
2.The most dangerous country right now is Spain (as of March 27) rather than Italy
- Spain’s total population is more than 46 million, and this figure is significantly less than that of Hubei Province’s 59.17 million. But at present, Spain has accumulated more than 64,000 confirmed diagnoses, which is very close to the cumulative number of more than 67,000 diagnosed in Hubei Province.
- What’s more, the number of confirmed diagnoses in Spain is still growing rapidly, and according to the analysis above, we can see that the growth rate of infection rate per 10,000 people in Spain is the fastest of all major countries, much faster than France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. At present, about 8,000 people are added in a single day, and there is no sign of an inflection point in the short term. Spain currently has a case fatality rate of 7.58%, second only to Italy, San Marino, Iraq and Indonesia.
- The current situation in Spain is even more serious than in Hubei! During the worst of the epidemic, Hubei, China with 1.4 billion people, gave its full support. Who can Spain rely on? EU?
3. U.S. epidemic situation is not optimistic
- Data as of April 4th, the total number of diagnoses in the United States was 124,464, the number of newly confirmed cases was 19803, the total number of deaths was 2,191, and the mortality rate was 1.76%. The total detection was 73.5w, and the detection ratio was about 16%. More outbreaks next week have become inevitable. New York may enter the high platform area next week or next week, and the medical system will be under pressure across the board. According to a comparative analysis of Spain, France, Britain, and Germany, the key to whether the outbreak can be reduced is in these two weeks.
- Although the medical strength and the number of ICCU beds per capita in the United States are the best in the world, the paper strength to cope with COVID-19 is the strongest in the world. But the current growth situation is likely to be similar to that of Spain. If the epidemic is allowed to spread, medical resource runs will still be inevitable.
- Michigan (Detroit), Massachusetts (Boston), Florida, and Illinois (Chicago) are the most likely new tipping points. At that time, the growth rate of new cases in the United States will be three to four times the current rate. Now it is necessary to rationally allocate medical resources across the United States, increase production capacity, try to avoid humanitarian disasters caused by the run-up of medical resources, and avoid repeating the situation in Wuhan, Madrid and Lombardy, especially in Detroit and parts of Chicago. If the growth rate is between Spain and France, the number of infected people will inevitably exceed 1 million, and the medical system will collapse like Spain and Italy.
4. It is difficult for most European countries to avoid the situation like Italy. Although it is difficult for us to fight against COVID-19 as effectively as Germany and Switzerland, we can simply avoid Spain by several means.
- Protect the elderly. Because in many countries the number of new coronavirus tests is still insufficient, people only know the average age of confirmed cases. However, there are many young people who develop new coronary pneumonia, and they are basically asymptomatic or mild. The average age of confirmed cases in Italy is much higher than in other countries, including Germany. German population researcher Andreas Backhaus said in a tweet earlier this week that “the average age of German patients is 45 years, and the average age of Italian patients is 63 years. Robert Koch- Institut classifies people over the age of 60 into the elderly group, not over 70. Even so, Germany’s elderly infection group is far below the Italian level: as of early this week, only 19% of confirmed cases in Germany were over 60 years old. More than half of the diagnosed cases are 35-59 years old. In Germany, aging is actually worse than in Italy. However, the lifestyles of the two countries are very different. Italian family members have close relationships, and the elderly have a wide social relationship. At the age of 64, the Germans are relatively alienated between generations. The average age of infection is 46. Young people are mainly infected, so the mortality rate is much lower. In China, they established a square cabin hospital to treat young mildly infected Get together to heal and prevent them from infecting their elderly family members.
- Fully tested. The number of tests is different. According to the analysis of the age of confirmed cases in various countries, we can also see the test situation in each country. If more young people are infected in Italy, the mortality rate may look very different. If the development of a country’s epidemic is more severe, it will be more difficult for that country to detect more people. Because the country’s health department is overwhelmed by the outbreak alone. In Germany, a comprehensive screening test was carried out very early, and the detection volume reached 15,000 / day at the end of January. Not only has drive through, but you can also send samples to the corresponding laboratory for testing. No doctor’s order is required, and a large number of mild patients have been tested in time. . In China, statistics show that by mid-March, the Chinese government had tested 14 million samples.
- Coordinating and preparing sufficient materials, you are the EU! The better the hospital is prepared for the epidemic, the more people will have a chance to be cured. This is obvious. When severe medical runs occur, there is simply no way for people to get proper treatment, or whether they can be treated in intensive care when their conditions change dramatically. Germany has invested in national health care forces for a long time. Italy has about 60 million people. Before the outbreak, according to official statistics, there were 5,000 intensive care beds. During the epidemic, additional intensive care beds were added. There are about 80 million people in Germany and 28,000 intensive care beds. At the same time, there are 28,000 intensive care units equipped with respirators in Germany, and only 7,000 in Italy. In total, China has dispatched more than 40,000 medical staff to support Wuhan. Considering that they are factories in the world, the availability of materials is also an important reason for China’s victory [and I use that term VERY fucking loosely] over COVID-19. If Europe can, like China, set up a medical team in each country and travel to different countries to support the epidemic situation in each country, it will be able to effectively use ventilators and medical staff and use the time difference to defeat COVID-19.
5. There are too few nucleic acid tests in Japan and the United Kingdom. Failure to treat patients in time may lead to outbreaks in these two countries as severe as in the early days of Wuhan.
- The data in the United Kingdom is relatively easy to analyze. The increase in the number of diagnoses and infection rates is close to that in most European countries, but the number of deaths is much higher than the number of cures, which indicates that a large number of mild patients in the United Kingdom have not been diagnosed. Considering that the “herd immunization” strategy adopted by the British government some time ago has caused the Prime Minister and the Prince to be infected, it is difficult to believe that the growth trend of the number of confirmed diagnoses in the UK can be changed rapidly after the British government changes its policy. Taking into account the increase in mortality in the UK (the initial growth rate is second only to Spain) and similar per capita medical conditions as Italy and Spain (a larger gap than France and Germany), it is difficult to say that the UK epidemic will develop in a week. Like Spain today.
- Japanese data is very difficult to analyze:
- Good hygiene habits of citizens across the country: have a good custom of wearing masks; meal-sharing system; national character of “no trouble to others”; social distance; May be the experience of coping with SARS. Nationals did not despise COVID19 in the early stage of the outbreak.
- Powerful medical resources: the data of ICU beds per capita, number of ECMOs per capita, number of ventilators per capita, scientific research capabilities, and medical care capabilities are among the highest in the world.
- No super-infection incident: Although there was the Diamond Princess incident, there were no super-infection incidents like the Korean cult gathering and the 30th patient in Italy, which delayed the outbreak to a certain extent.
- The world’s number one aging rate: The number of aging people in the country is the world’s largest. According to the available data, we already know that the aging population is very vulnerable to COVID-19.
- Extremely low nucleic acid detection: The conditions for setting nucleic acid detection in Japan are very harsh, and the daily detection amount does not exceed 1,000 cases.
- There is a problem with the mortality data: Japan’s disease mortality rate is currently 72/472, which is ten times the death rate of the Diamond Princess passenger infected 12/602. Considering that most of the passengers on the Diamond Princess are elderly, the mortality gap is even larger. This seems to indicate that the number of infections in Japan may be nearly ten times higher than the number of infections currently announced.
- Based on the above three favorable factors and three unfavorable factors, we can infer that the outbreak in Japan has indeed been postponed. Even if we speculate that the Japanese government masked the number of infections by restricting nucleic acid tests, similar to Spain, Italy, and Wuhan, outbreaks of this magnitude cannot be masked.
- However, it must be mentioned that delaying the epidemic does not mean that the epidemic will not erupt. Considering Japan’s aging level and the virus has spread throughout Japan during the delay period, once the outbreak will be a full-scale outbreak across the country, the number of infections and mortality will be even worse than in Spain. The Japanese government now needs to use this delay period quickly to prepare for the outbreak. I hope that the Japanese government can effectively respond to the epidemic and reduce the death toll. I fear Canada may lay here, and the only thing that will be able to enforce social distancing is full military intervention. G’luck, stay safe, much love and all that jazz.
No matter what happens though, just know that everything will be okay in the end… and if it’s not okay right now, it’s not the end.